CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole published a Q4 playbook that combines crypto-native and macro charts to help traders position for the final stretch of 2025. The analysis blends Bitcoin seasonality with cross-market signals to map out upside targets and risk-off triggers.
Tailwinds for Bitcoin and Ether
- Q4 seasonality remains bullish: Since 2013 Bitcoin has averaged an 85% gain in the final quarter, with November delivering the strongest monthly returns (~46%). Ether typically follows suit even if its biggest rallies have historically arrived in Q1.
- Long-term support to watch: Despite a 5% weekly slide, BTC still trades above its 50-week simple moving average near $98,900. Godbole notes that as long as price respects that band, the broader uptrend that began in early 2023 remains intact.
Rotation Clues from XRP/BTC and MicroStrategy Shorts
- XRP/BTC coil: Ripple’s token is up 32% year-to-date, yet its BTC pair has been stuck in a tight range since 2021. A breakout from that four-year compression could spark outperformance versus Bitcoin if bulls seize control.
- Leveraged short ETF flashing warning: The Defiance Daily Target 2x Short MSTR ETF (ticker SMST), which inversely tracks MicroStrategy, just punched to a five-month high and completed an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern—often a sign Bitcoin may face additional downside pressure.
Macro Signals: Dollar Strength and Nvidia Exhaustion
- Dollar index forming a double bottom: The DXY has rebounded from 96.30 and now threatens a move above 100.26. Follow-through would target 104 and tighten financial conditions for risk assets, including crypto.
- Nvidia at resistance: Shares of Nvidia (NVDA), a bellwether for AI and risk sentiment, continue to stall near the top of a broadening channel. A rollover would reinforce a risk-off tone that typically bleeds into digital assets.
Taken together, the charts pitch a classic “cautious optimism” message: Q4’s historical tailwinds remain in play, but a stronger dollar, a soggy equity leader, or momentum shifts in XRP/BTC could quickly sap confidence. Traders will be watching the 50-week SMA on BTC and the DXY breakout levels as the first line of defense.
Source: CoinDesk